Why the ad market is more unpredictable than ever

“Despite a boost at the end of the year, fueled by events such as the World Cup, the market will experience a plateau effect in the second half,” warns Xavier Guillon, managing director of France Pub. With a GDP more low, the landing will be even harder.

Will there be advertising at Christmas? Not in abundance, according to the Bump barometer published on September 15 by France Pub, Irep and Kantar. It is true that the market is resisting: in the first half of 2022, the market for traditional media (press, TV, radio, display and cinema), including the digital component, grew by 13.2%, to 7.8 billion euros. But the objective of recovering, or even exceeding, the level of 2019 hangs on a very tenuous thread: that of growth. This year, with a GDP increase of 2.5%, close to INSEE forecasts, the market for all media combined will reach 33.4 billion, 7.6% more, but still 1.3% less than in 2019.

“Despite a boost at the end of the year, fueled by events such as the World Cup, the market will experience a plateau effect in the second half,” warns Xavier Guillon, managing director of France Pub. With a GDP more low, the landing will be even harder.

Which gives the boards a hard time, as they abandon their commercial conditions – like that of TF1, piloted by Sylvia Tassan Toffola, this September 22, in the context of a failed merger with M6 (see page 46). The advertiser is increasingly unpredictable: “He decides everything at the last moment, with variable geometry campaigns, we no longer know where to turn!” lose the boss of great management. With the promotion war looming in distribution, which remains the number one investor, fall promises plenty of cold sweats.

Agencies are also suffering from this new volatility: “Before, 80% of budgets were carried over from one year to the next. Today, it’s half,” says the head of a creative nugget. And Jean Patrick Chiquiar, co-founder of Rosa Paris (Havas), added: “Until now, the economic model was: the first year, we collect the investments to obtain the budget and the first campaign; the second, we break even.” , and from the third, we make it profitable.[…]

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